The Dynamics of the US-China Trade War: A Conceptual Framework

See discussions stats and author profiles for this publication at httpswwwresearchgatenetpublication338690623 The dynamics of the current global restructuring and contemporary framework of the USChina trade war Article January 2020 DOI 1011770974910119896636 CITATIONS 0 READS 46 1 author Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects Business innovation knowledge and change management View project Entrepreneurship development policies View project Charis M Vlados Democritus University of Thrace 100 PUBLICATIONS 248 CITATIONS SEE PROFILE All content following this page was uploaded by Charis M Vlados on 20 January 2020 The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 1 The dynamics of the current global restructuring and the contemporary framework of the USChina trade war Charis Vlados1 Abstract The current escalation of the USChina trade war shows that the dynamics of the crisis and restructuring of the global socioeconomic system are in an accelerating phase In the present study we seek to explore the fundamental dimensions and future directions of the USChina trade war and delineate a conceptual framework for understanding its significance for the restructuring of the global system Through some representative scientific contributions to the study on the USChina trade war we find an increasing emphasis on the declining and repositioning of US global hegemony which the earlier optimistic theoretical forecasts did not manage to predict By linking the dynamics of the crisis and restructuring of the global socioeconomic system to the forces of innovation and change management we argue that this trade war is yet another proof of the gradual restructuring of global equilibriums These alterations of the structures of the global system seem to lead to the creation of a new equilibrium regime we call new globalization which requires the gradual construction of a new global architecture Keywords Globalization crisis and restructuring USChina trade war innovation creative destruction new globalization JEL Classification O24 O30 O57 1 Department of Economics Democritus University of Thrace Komotini Greece School of Business University of Nicosia Makedonitissas Avenue Nicosia Cyprus vladcoopgmailcom The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 2 The contour of the USChina trade war Dynamics of the current global restructuring The unfolding of a growing number of socioeconomic phenomena on a global scale suggests that a crisis and restructuring of globalization is underway From the disruption in global economic governance Bayer 2019 to the increasing inequality in some developed nations Ahluwalia 2019 Camdessus 2019 from the idea that globalization has stalled and suffering reversals Jara 2017 to the systemic power redistribution in a multipolar world Efstathopoulos 2016 all suggests that the global system is changing rapidly towards an uncertain direction Undoubtedly the evolving trade war between the US and China is a significant geopolitical phenomenon as it involves the restructuring of relations between the two largest economies in the world In the context of the crisis and restructuring of globalization it is reasonable to argue that all yesterdays certainties relationships and roles of power at all levels of our socioeconomic symbiosis appear to have entered a profound structural reshaping The progressive deterioration of the postwar American hegemony the drastic emergence of the Chinese communist geopolitical giant the multipolar development and underdevelopment into different spatial niches all show that our world is far from a sufficiently stable model of global socioeconomic development Berry Culpeper Stewart 2016 Pieterse 2018 More precisely in 2018 the Trump administration launched a series of tariffs that sparked a trade war between the US and China One of the main reasons was the increasing trade deficit with China caused by the cumulative trillions of dollars America transfers overseas Washington accused China that this money is used by rival countries to buy US assets as opposed to investing that money in the US The alleged theft of intellectual property by foreign companies was another accusation Sanger Benner 2018 Besides allegations of Chinese espionage against the US by either stealing American intellectual property and military technology or adopting and enforcing policies that put US patent holders at a disadvantage in Chinese markets seemed a reality for many policymakers and businesspeople According to Washingtons The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 3 accusations China is forcing foreign companies to engage in joint ventures with domestic companies by giving them illegal access to their technologies Liu Woo 2018 Besides according to Iqbal Rahman Elimimian 2019 the tariff war waged under Trump on Chinese goods worth tens of billions of US dollars has unavoidable repercussions for the overall world trade operations and activities Methodology The purpose of the present study is to investigate the concept different contents fundamental dimensions and prospects for overcoming the threats the world economy faces due to this trade war between the US and China The structure of the article is as follows We venture on a critical review of the international literature on the issue of the USChina trade war Specifically after studying 12 significant articles derived from the Scopus database we come up with a relatively concise but representative sample of the different perspectives of the international scientific literature on the USChina trade war Our searchs main criterion was for these articles to have in their title the phrases USChina trade war or SinoUS trade war from 2017 until today Next after observing a converging trend of agreement on the declining and rebalancing global hegemony of the US we analyze the present repositioning of the outline of global hegemony combined with the ongoing geopolitical and geoeconomic dynamics at the global level The declining US postwar global hegemony is in itself a powerful indication of the global socioeconomic systems overall reequilibrium The next section attempts to construct a conceptual framework for understanding the current global restructuring It explores in particular some fundamental contributions to the perception of development and crisis phenomena in line with Joseph Schumpeters creative destruction and innovation and with the School of Regulation theoretical orientation with the emerging accumulation regime on a global scale that is of the fourth industrial revolution The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 4 Finally we conclude our research by identifying the necessary analytical dimensions for understanding the current USChina trade war and discussing the necessary conditions for the emergence of a new more stable and sustainable global accumulation regime This conceptual paper tries to explore the general framework of the USChina trade war and global relational reequilibration By doing so it conducts a critical literature review which attempts to appraise and synthesize the existing state of knowledge about the topic under investigation in the effort to identify gaps and convergences in the relevant scientific knowledge Carnwell Daly 2001 This secondary research uses data and analyses that already exist in some form and proceed in a critical appreciation and theoretical synthesis Largan Morris 2019 The implications and the main dimensions of the USChina trade war Ever since Trumps administration announced its policies and started implementation a USChina trade war from the tariffs imposed on either side began to unfold This section presents in a chronological order 12 articles from the international scientific literature on issues relating to the SinoUS trade war from the end of 2017 until the August of 2019 The literature review seems to imprint to some extent the legitimate concern for the future of the global trade system as expressed from the prevailing trend of the global academic and research community Therefore we distinguish the following 12 main conclusions from our bibliographic inquiry 1 Even before the formal imposition of tariffs between the two nations the phenomenon seemed inevitable In a call to avoid the trade war in the making the EastWest Bank CEO Dominic Ng USCBC 2017 stressed the obsession demonstrated by the US concerning its trade balance with China He argued that this bellicose posturing is dangerous for both economies because they are both closer to each other than they tend to believe Therefore actions should be taken to assess the real issues behind the USChina trade imbalance and to pressurize China to increase intellectual property enforcement and reduce overcapacity of specific manufacturing sectors At the same time the US should remove outdated or unreasonable barriers that hinder US companies from exporting products to China The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 5 while both governments should take actions to make their national security screening processes more transparent 2 Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports in June 2018 followed by a prompt retaliation from Chinas Ministry of Commerce in July 2018 An early study confirms that with the onset of this trade war a science squeeze might happen in the US Silver 2018 For example some scientists seem to oppose the imposition of these tariffs particularly in the US for a variety of reasons I am opposed to these seemingly adhoc tariffs because it will further stretch the already anaemic scientific research budgets in this countrySilver 2018 p 494 3 It seems that the emergence of a multipolar world has upset the US hegemony which is now highly concerned with issues of national security Trumps trade war reflects this national security concern and the hesitation by the US to continue promoting economic globalization Liu and Woo 2018 suggest that there should be more reciprocity in Chinas trade and investment relations with the advanced economies despite Chinas status as a developing economy under WTO rules Regarding the US Liu and Woo 2018 suggest that President Trump must stop equating strategy with economic competition because the economic dynamism and resilience always emerges from an internationally competitive innovation system and not from preventing rival countries from gaining technological prowess 4 Hur 2018 wonders whether USChina trade war will unfold within the WTO framework First the author argues that economic technological and manufacturing competition is a part of the hegemonic rivalry borne from the US China historical economic relations and second that this trade war has spillover effects on other countries beyond the framework of the WTO The author suggests that this impasse of the global trade framework will probably lead to a reconstruction of the multilateral trading system 5 According to Lukin 2019 the US world status is weakening while the influence of other centers of power primarily but not only China is growing The US though continues to behave like a hegemon and gets upset by the resistance it encounters and feels the need to implement measures against its rivals As Lukin 2019 suggests only if Chinas socioeconomic evolution manages to refute the The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 6 theory of modernization where the Westernization of the political system drives economic growth we could speak of a truly multipolar world China it seems cannot achieve this objective without a significant conflict with the US 6 Although the US might stop escalating the trade war it will probably not remove the tariffs anytime soon and China in retaliation will also keep most of the tariffs imposed on US imports While a temporary ceasefire agreement seems possible the trade war is projected to last for a long time and as a result many industries might leave China while the more developed and Westernoriented Hong Kong may fall victim to an escalated trade war Lai 2019 7 Regarding the political strategies Rhode 2019 of the two rivals Washington estimates that Chinas high dependence on US exports2 offers the US a significant advantage On the other hand Chinas leadership estimates that Trumps low favorability with the US public usually hovering around 40 percent makes him politically vulnerable and that as compared to the stateled nature of the Chinese economy the US economy would be more vulnerable to market pressures resulting from tariffs As of February 2019 Rhode 2019 it seemed that a trade deal between the US and China was near something that would suggest the following First China would have failed to mobilize US domestic discontent and instead exploited Trumps desire for headline victories to deploy in his reelection campaign Second markets and politics constrain the consensus in the US around getting tough with China 8 Of course there are also broader exoeconomic consequences According to Fuchs et al 2019 from an ecological perspective trade wars have caused massive deforestation in the Amazon in the past The same is likely to happen if China continues to import more soya beans from Brazil instead of from the US In 2016 Brazil supplied almost half of Chinas soyabean imports while it has the infrastructure and land area to increase production rapidly the area dedicated to soyabean production can increase by up to 39 percent to 13 million hectares For comparison in 1995 and 2004 the countrys two peak deforestation years almost 2Chinese exports in the US average approximately 4 percent of the overall GDP while US exports in China represent only approximately 06 percent of its GDP The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 7 3 million hectares of rainforest was cleared The authors conclude Fuchs et al 2019 that governments producers regulators and consumers must act now otherwise the Amazon rainforest could become the greatest casualty of the US China trade conflict 9 From the perspective of implications the SinoUS trade war on the global trade perhaps a scaleup in prices of foreign goods in the home country trade diversion and distortions in global value chains seem inevitable In this context according to Iqbal Rahman Elimimian 2019 the world economy is now facing a detrimental uncertainty that undermines the longterm prospects 10 Another aspect of the USChina trade war is the repositioning of Europes role in this scenario The inwardlooking approach by the US government shows that the global economy is demanding new and shared leadership In this context the EU needs to work with its AsiaPacific partners and the US to revise the trade rules reduce border impediments and lay the ground for a more prosperous global marketplace for the twentyfirst century Plummer 2019 11 This trade war also has proved that the mechanism of the WTO to settle trade disputes is probably dysfunctional The lack of confidence in WTO to redress members retroactive economic losses seems obvious According to Adekola 2019 the WTO is on the verge of becoming dysfunctional with members resorting to selfhelp without recourse to the rules and procedures of the organization for dispute settlement According to Adekola 2019 now is the time for reforms to strengthen the multilateral trading system 12 Subsequently He et al 2019 from an environmental perspective argue that the Chinese government viewed in soybean production a weapon to cope with the US in the trade war given the massive quantity of soybean imported from the US to China However a change in international soybean trade would lead to growing global environmental costs in the short term due to the soybean surplus in the US and the increased food transportation mileage Considering the effects on the environment the authors argue that a trade barrier among nations typically increases the global environmental costs of agricultural production in the short term He et al 2019 suggest that the best strategy to improve the now global and The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 8 domestic environmental costs would be to increase Chinas selfsufficiency in soybean production In this bibliographic overview of how the scientific community is addressing the issue of the recent USChina trade war we find that the majority is emphasizing on the issue of the emerging decline of the US hegemony Hur 2018 Liu Woo 2018 Lukin 2019 Plummer 2019 Rhode 2019 In particular the current US inwardlooking stance toward globalization and Chinas counter measures appear to influence both economies negatively Lai 2019 Silver 2018 which are closer to each other than they think USCBC 2017 The scientific community also seems to criticize the environmental footprint of this trade war Some scientists expect further deforestation of the Amazon forest due to increased soybeans production in Brazil Fuchs et al 2019 He et al 2019 Finally this SinoUS trade war of course can only create detrimental uncertainty for the longterm prospects of the global trade Iqbal et al 2019 with the lack of confidence in the supranational instruments such as the WTO to settle trade disputes being indicative of this trend Adekola 2019 Geoeconomics geopolitics and the quest for a new global hegemony More generally we can understand that the ongoing SinoUS trade war falls within the category of claiming hegemony in a multipolar world The contemporary world of crisis and restructuring of globalization does not seem to have settled into a status quo that creates conditions for stable and generalized wellbeing A similar development progress to what we experienced during the maturation of globalization especially in the 1980s 1990s and in most part of the 2000s seems now unattainable Friedman 1999 Gilpin 2000 Rodrik 2011 Indeed there was such optimism in the atmosphere during the previous development phase of globalization where some eminent analysts argued with considerable acceptance by the scientific and political community that the world was moving towards a quasistatic endphase of global socioeconomic development At this stage many attempts to predict the future of capitalism ended up in failure More precisely according to Ohmae 1985 a Triad power was forming the The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 9 upcoming shape of global competition consisting of three national entities Japan the US and Europe By now the strategic significance of Japan the United States and Europe should be obvious This Triad is where the major markets are it is where the competitive threat comes from it is where new technologies will originate As competition becomes keener it is where preventative action against protectionism will be needed most Ohmae 1985 p 121 According to Fukuyama 1992 an end of history seemed the logical conclusion of the world order an endpoint of mankinds ideological evolution and final form of human government Fukuyama arguedwith a significant impact at the timethat the legitimacy of liberal democracy as a system of government has conquered rival ideologies like hereditary monarchy fascism and most recently communism As Fukuyama 1992 p xi asserted While some presentday countries might fail to achieve stable liberal democracy and others might lapse back into other more primitive forms of rule like theocracy or military dictatorship the ideal of liberal democracy could not be improved on In a similar vein for Thurow 1992 the world seemed to have entered into an economic battle between Japan Europe and America Looking forward the next half century will be a competitivecooperative three way economic game among Japan Europe and the United States In jockeying for competitive advantage they will force each other to adjust To mutually prosper they will have to cooperate to create a world economy that works and a global environment that allows them to survive and to enjoy what they produce Thurow 1992 p 15 Despite their remarkable popularity at the time all three of these converging perspectivesand many others respectivelyon global socioeconomic development appear to have failed to predict where global capitalism was going actually This interpretive and explanatory deficiency seems to be reinforced by the current USChina trade war These overoptimistic estimates and conclusions among other things did not manage to foresee how a political regime in China ruled by a Communist party was The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 10 about to lead the worlds secondlargest economy by seeking at the same time global hegemony In this context it seems vital to highlight the growing role played by geopolitical and geoeconomic relations in todays era of crisis and restructuring of globalization Vlados Deniozos Chatzinikolaou Demertzis 2018 and how the USChina trade war reflects the quest for global hegemony Nowadays geopoliticsand the derived analytical concept of geoeconomics seem to be acquiring new interest More precisely the discipline of geopolitics can synthesize different analytical instruments by having as a final goal to implement a geostrategy that can increase national power and broaden the control of geographic territory Wigell Vihma 2016 However after the end of the Cold War two arguments were put forward suggesting the end of geopolitics Tuathail 1997 First how allegedly the new phase of global development removes geographical constraints and distances Second that under the influence of the dynamics of globalization the establishment of integrated economic units such as the European Union leads many states to lose part of their national sovereignty Nevertheless geopolitics and geoeconomics nowadays regain a growing theoretical interest3 In Luttwaks 1990 1998 geoeconomic perspective whose work laid the ground for the creation of geoeconomics as a distinct branch of geopolitics nations are involved in antagonisms by offering help or directly guiding private national actors and by obstructing foreign trade interests The goal here is to conquer future industries by achieving technological superiority By extension nowadays a nations real sovereignty depends largely on investment attractiveness and soft power capacity across major areassuch as Chinas Belt and Road Initiative a global development strategy adopted by the Chinese government that involves infrastructure development and investments around the globe Firzli 2017b 2017a According to Layne 2018 China is already working to recast the international order in ways that favor its interests far from consenting to be bound by institutions 3Modern geopolitics Guiora 2013 Newman 2010 distinguishes itself from the classical prewar geopolitics Fettweis 2015 Owens 1999 being more cautious against oversimplistic theoretical generalizations and increasingly focusing on the specific historical context of the subject The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 11 and rules of the Pax Americana US power is in a relative decline China is rising quickly while the liberal world De Graaff Van Apeldoorn 2018 Duncombe Dunne 2018 as it used to be cannot survive the erosion of US hegemonic power Phillipson 2018 This structural change and not Donald Trump threatens the survival of the postSecond World War international order Concerning specifically the origins of the hegemony concept the Marxist philosopher Antonio Gramsci used the term hegemony to highlight how the political leadership obtains and sustains the consent of majority of the governed Bates 1975 For example according to Gardner 2019 by contrast to Gramsci who uses the term hegemony primarily in a domestic context a more expansive concept of hegemony possesses multiple geostrategic dimensions in a global system For Gardner hegemony depends both on international and domestic aspects by using a mix of varying degrees of force repression containment cooptation cooperation consent and assimilation According to Mastanduno 2019 after the Cold War the US tried to enlarge its global hegemony by offering partner bargains to Russia and China However this order is now in jeopardy because of the partnership failure with Russia and the considerable strain in the USChina relationship In this context there are also challenges to the dollars status as the global reserve currency Prasad 2014 The rise of China and other rival powers together with the US growing national debt budget deficits and over extension of the US military have placed the US in an unsustainable economic position that will ultimately affect the US dollar However despite the contemporary problems with US finances no currency or a mix of currencies can substitute the US dollar as the global reserve currency Costigan Cottle Keys 2017 More precisely the SinoUS competition for global hegemony according to Kim 2019 can be explained from the two international relations theories the hegemonic stability theory and the power transition theory According to Keohane 1984 hegemonic stability theory means that a hegemon creates the global order based on its preferences while the continued hegemony is necessary for the maintenance of order On the other hand power transition theory Organski 1958 posits that war is likely when the power of the dominant state in the international system is The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 12 declining and that a dissatisfied rising challenger reduces the power gap between the hegemon and itself The power transition theory suggests that war is more likely when there is near power parity between a dominant state and a rising challenger Overall according to Kim and Gates 2015 both theories suggest that the stability of the international system results from hegemonic dominance through power preponderance Kim 2019 argues that under these circumstances Washington strives currently to assert its global dominance by deterring Chinas challenge to its hegemony Chinas expansive geostrategic policies such as the Belt and Road Initiative Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Made in China 2025 have caused fear in the US about hegemonic power transition something that can explain the USlaunched trade war In conclusion it seems that despite earlier overoptimistic predictions of the future of globalized capitalism to a supposedly final state todays analytical trends appear more grounded and realistic Andrikopoulos Nastopoulos 2015 The quest for global hegemony combined with geopolitical and geoeconomic approaches Luttwak 1990 1998 seems to give a relatively robust interpretative framework about where the current USChina trade war is going but also for the new regime of things caused by the current crisis and restructuring of globalization Something that the scientific community now clearly recognizes in contrast to earlier optimistic predictions of a universal dominance of liberal democracy worldwide is that the postwar American hegemony is facing an evident decline Costigan Cottle Keys 2017 Kim 2019 Mastanduno 2019 This fact alone is capable of demonstrating the need for a repositioning of our interpretations in the aftermath of the crisis and restructuring of globalization As we shall see in the next section the cause and the exit from the structural crises of capitalism as well as the present capitalist crisis are directly linked with the phenomenon of innovation and managing change on a global scale Understanding the restructuring of globalization in the age of the fourth industrial revolution and the new globalization The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 13 We suggest that to understand the current USChina trade war we must integrate it into an overall study of the present restructuring phase of global capitalism This study links in interpretative terms the following dimensions Figure 1 A a search for the new globalization B which will manage to establish a more balanced and sustainable new model of development on a global scale something that requires nowadays C the structural integration and further deepening of the revolutionary process in global socioeconomic terms D the acceleration of creative destruction and innovation processes on a global scale E the progressive consolidation of new and more effective change management mechanisms throughout all spatial and functional levels of global reality Figure 1 The dynamics of the current global restructuring Authors own conceptualization A The global crisis we are experiencing today is in fact the birth of a multiyear process of structural maturation and incubation As with any phase of development of world capitalism Michalet 1985 this phase of the global crisis is the result of a structural destabilization of the old globalscale growth model vigorously manifested over the last ten years The usual focal point of analysis for this destabilization is the The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 14 long chain of events that began superficially from the collapse of the SubPrime mortgage system and extended everywhere to all levels of our socioeconomic symbiosis However this crisis did not fall out of nowhere instead it rooted and stepped upon the structural maturation of the previous development model of globalization a maturation that occurred over the last three decades from the mid1980s to the mid2000s Precisely according to Vlados 2017 the global crisis and restructuring constitute a phase that the old model of development is transitioning towards new standards The old cycle of structural development has matured and destabilized qualitatively and quantitatively and therefore a new stream of innovation and change management is necessary for the launch of a historically new spiral of development Figure 2 Figure 2 Global crisis and restructuring Based on Vlados 2017 In a similar methodological orientation concerning the future world system according to Laudicina and Peterson 2016 globalization is going through a phase of containment a hiatus where developed and emerging markets experience economic volatility As the authors suggest the future of globalization varies between four different scenarios each with its implications for the overall socioeconomic and business development globalization 30 polarization islandization and The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 15 commonization Laudicina and Peterson 2016 describe the following scenarios for the future outline of the worlds socioeconomic system i The third version of globalization is expected to signal increased prosperity dramatic improvements in information and communication technology and low commodity prices that will bring high geopolitical cohesion and significant economic growth4 ii In the polarization scenario on the one hand regional trade agreements signal a trend towards globalizing while on the other hand persistent macroeconomic uncertainty heightened nationalism and protectionism and return of geopolitics lead to an islandization iii In the islandization scenario inequality is increasing while geopolitical cohesion and economic growth are becoming anemic iv In the last scenario of commonization the world addresses climate change followed by a rising knowledge economy by growing automation and 3D printing and sharing economy that produces greater geopolitical cohesion and less economic growth Overall these four scenarios constitute the current indicators of the future global economic order However which one is most likely Does the present SinoUS trade war point to a reinforcement of the first scenario which will favor tomorrows global economy and society We doubt it B In reality to fully understand how the current crisis and restructuring of globalization are structured the ongoing SinoUS trade war constitutes a manifestation of this crisis we have to explore the analytical categories of the soughtafter new development model the accumulation regime and the form of regulation on a global scale Guttmann 2018 Nitzan 2001 Yaghmaian 1998 In this context one of the most fertile although indirect theoretical platforms can be traced indirectly within the School of Regulation that developed in France during the 1970s Aglietta 1979 Boyer 2015 One of the fundamental contributions of this theoretical approach is to understand that every socioeconomic system contains and 4In the first version of globalization postSoviet bloc countries and China begin to liberalize while in the second the BRICS and other emerging markets power the global economy The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 16 mobilizes historically successive growth models Specifically the model of development of each economic system is an evolutionary synthesis between the accumulation regime and the form of regulation of the overall economic activity within each historically defined society The accumulation regime is defined by how each economy in its way organizes production sets the time horizon for capital utilization distributes the generated values synthesizes social demand and articulates its relationships with other economic systems The structure of this particular model of development is at the same time a birth but also an engine of the overall socio economic dynamics of each socioeconomic formation in the context of the global environment Although this approach starts from a specific national focus it enables us to understand the global reality better It helps us to understand the concept of the current crisis of globalization its structural historical and evolutionary perspective After all what is happening nowadays is an overall restructuring and repositioning of the global development model with profound rearrangements at the global accumulation regime and the forms of regulation at all levels national supranational regional and local More generally the exploration of the current structural crisis and the restructuring of globalization Guttmann 2015 Yokokawa 2013 is ultimately a physiological phase in the evolution of capitalism The crisis can lead to death or generate the necessary conditions for renewal by eliminating the inadequate diseased or dead cells the crisis phase is not a pleasant phase but a necessary evolutionary phase After all each historical phase of development of the world capitalism conveys and reproduces the dominance of different models of developmentcrisis within its participating socioeconomic formations None of these models can ever be fully copied nor of course can last forever Moreover the new accumulation regime on a global scale that appears to emerge in the current restructuring framework of globalization seems to converge with a new overall socioeconomic reality that many analysts and international organizations call as fourth industrial revolution Davis 2016 Kelly 2019 Schwab 2016 and new globalization Bhattacharya Khanna Schweizer Bijapurkar 2017 Vlados Deniozos Chatzinikolaou 2018b The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 17 C In the depth of this structural process of globalization an underground structural revolution always takes place From a neoSchumpeterian perspective we could say that an industrial revolution is any radical socioeconomic change that a socioeconomic system assimilates structurally over time Köhler 2012 More precisely the emerging Fourth Industrial Revolution concerns the ongoing rapid technological advancement since the latest development in artificial intelligence and robotics it seem can increase fundamentally the productivity of mostly the developed economies Some theorists link this historical phase with the appearance of the socalled cyberphysical systems deriving from an integrated production process based on decentralized systems Colombo Karnouskos Kaynak Shi Yin 2017 In particular the present phase of the world capitalist system requires significant investment in new forms of cooperation between the private and public sectors Leydesdorff 2018 otherwise the developmental gap between rich and poor will increase geopolitical tensions will become more intense while sustainable development initiatives will stall World Economic Forum 2016 If we do not manage as a global civil society to cope with these challenges then it seems that our world will face once again the reappearance of painful events similar to what previous industrial revolutions faced leading to longlasting economic recessions and international outbursts of intolerance and violence Of course the current restructuring of the world economy is something necessary in evolutionary terms The past 30 years of global dynamics have formulated a qualitatively new phase in the historical development of capitalism Nowadays dense systemic interactions extend progressively on a global scale throughout all the levels and kinds of institutions and actors In this context an exit from this crisis seems to require a new global balance and regulation architecture According to Vlados 2017 the world is seeking after a new balance at three levels at the same time Figure 3 The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 18 Figure 3 The soughtafter identity of new globalization 2008 Based on Vlados 2017 These generic orientations of the soughtafter identity of new globalization could be framed as follows I The rebalanced democratic multipolarity It represents a new scheme of multipolar geostrategic partnership The major international partners have to recalibrate their partnered hegemony by repositioning the US geostrategic role and by deepening the role of the EU and other emerging economies on the planet II The new innovative capitalism It refers to a new model of balanced capitalism globally A refocused capitalism will need to turn toward the real economys priorities by constantly restructuring its productive and managerial capacity by repositioning the partial consumption patterns on a global scale by dealing with the global environmental challenges and by trying to absorb the global credit bubble systematically through the cultivation of a reequilibrated and innovative open trade liberal system III The organic innovation Perhaps the most critical pillar for this new global re synthesis is how innovation is articulated This reorientation is critical because we live in a world of ever more complex networks of every kind economic The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 19 technological political and cultural Moreover these networks are becoming less distinct and with less steady hierarchies D To face these new challenges it seems our world needs a leap of innovation at every level spatial organizational and institutional as a prerequisite This innovative leap must be built up and implemented at all levels in order for our world to enter the path of a new more stable model of global development through a wave of creative destruction at all levels of globalization Economic political technological and ideological Onaran Galanis 2014 Vlados Deniozos Chatzinikolaou 2018b However what do we mean by creative destruction in global terms Specifically concerning the dimension of innovation Schumpeter 1942 introduced during the first decades of the twentieth century to economic theory the concept of creative destruction in order to describe how the old methods of production are endogenously destroyed and replaced by new ones5 So where can the forces of global creative destruction come from that could lead to a new cycle of more balanced and sustainable global development Both Chinas willingness to upgrade its products Made in China 2015 and the call of an increasing part of Chinese people for democratic reforms Shambaugh 2015 appear to be such innovative nuggets capable of destroying older reassured structures From the US side the political obsession for continued claim of global hegemony as established after the World War II shows that the US is not in a good position to grasp the new accumulation regime that is emerging nowadays in an already multipolar world Murray Brown 2018 Woodley 2015 To mitigate and assimilate the turbulences from this transition such as those in the current USChina trade war which is an inevitable symptom to a new stable world regime requires from all players assimilation of a vigorous innovative spirit at levels of management national supranational and local By the term innovation in this 5The creative destruction takes place in the progressive destruction and demolition of outdated technologies the aging economic sectors and the reassured firms that are declining and dying while at the same time new technologies innovative firms and new sectors of economic activity emerge Thus the creative destruction becomes an inevitable evolutionary phenomenon in the productive heart of capitalism itself as it transforms the sectoral structures of markets and the structure of total economic activityand thus the new one is always rooted in the carcass of the old Moreover indeed it is often as if the corpse of the old nourished it in its infancy The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 20 perspective we mean designing and implementing new ways of solving old or new problems by adapting more efficient procedures than the past The concepts of the global crisis and innovation after all are necessarily inherent and indivisible the two sides of the same coin The crisis is reproduced by the relative absence of innovation which is always the essential force for the end of the old regime However in the course of world history innovation often seems to delay too much while the era of fruitless attempts to transcend the past can take a very long time6 E However how does innovation come after all The new innovation seems to be just a derivative term the process of managing change at every level produces innovation It is the method we choose that is more or less consciously and rationally to perceive draw combine direct coordinate and control at every level of our organized life our resources and forces aiming to meet the changing demands of our socioeconomic environment Managing change is the organic set of our thoughts and actions the mechanisms and methodologies we develop evolutionarily more or less consciously organized and systematically and that allows usor notto adapt effectively to the eternal flow of change Moreover when this flow of change becomes explosive and subversivein crisis that isthis ability is the fundamental basis for allowingor notinnovation to develop Without effective change management in global terms innovation is slow efforts to overcome the old are failing while inefficiencies are replicated and the crisis keeps on burdening us For this very reason managing change is not only linked to the realm of innovation but is always closely tied to the dynamics of the crisis At the same time the crisis always defines the requirements of its transcendence and sets the specific limits of potential and the level of success for all change management mechanisms for all players at all times Moreover this is because in the background the engine of the overall socioeconomic global development is innovation Of course innovation never enters undisturbedly and peacefully since it demands multiple structural rearrangements innovation always requires the accompanying change management mechanisms that cause it to be 6In the words of Gramsci 1971 p 270 The crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 21 successful Serrat 2017 Vlados Chatzinikolaou 2019 Today we think that the doublet of innovationchange management dynamics applies to all socioeconomic levels and procedures of the contemporary world It demands ultimately a renewed understanding of the central dimensions of change a gradual consolidation of a dialectical perception Morabito Sack Bhate 2018 Sparke 2018 Vlados Deniozos Chatzinikolaou 2018a in the effort to understand the contemporary ever evolving reality and new coherent management of this change 7 Conclusions and discussions In this study we attempted to identify the content and basic dimensions of the US China trade war After studying 12 scientific articles written from 2017 to date we find that there is a growing emphasis on the declining US hegemony on the world stage and the search of a sustainable new global equilibrium On this basis we interpreted this shift in the correlation of forces using the realistic contribution of geoeconomics and the analysis of global hegemony in contrast to some analyses of the past which today seem to be unconfirmed by reality Fukuyama 1992 Ohmae 1985 Thurow 1992 Overall we suggest that we can reliably understand the USChina trade war in the context of the evolving nature of world capitalism Andreff 1976 ChaseDunn Hall 2016 Windolf 1999 under specific analytical conditions This understanding requires an overcoming of the quasistatic or repetitive perception of reality It requires the analytical escape from the superficial imprints and the conjunctural symptoms of the highly fluctuating international economy It requires the deepening into a historical way of approaching the complex dynamics that bind together and mobilize the contemporary global economic system It requires further analytical deepening in terms of the model of global development accumulation and regulation Moreover it requires a new generation of political economy a genuinely evolutionary economic theorization of globalization In this context the following paragraphs can express the main points of discussion on the subject The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 22 A Overall we can perceive the dynamics of the global economic system as a continuous process of mutation framed under a qualitatively changing system of things Therefore any attempt to formulate a supposedly final and saturated definition of the definitive rules of operation of the world economy is necessarily doomed to failure at all times B In this sense we should not perceive the current trade war between the US and China as an unexpected phenomenon This and other similar turbulent phenomena emerge physiologically within the phase of the qualitative transformation of the global capitalism of our days The shift of the geoeconomic tectonic platesat the same time in productive commercial financial and technological terms of analysisof world capitalism in the last years of the previous phase of globalization incubated a new form of capitalism C Therefore the manifestation of this new imbalance in terms of hegemony beyond the choices made by Trumps administrationwas somewhat expected The most important question however is more profound than the direct impact of the current outbreak of the USChina trade war and this is the following To what extent the crisis in USChina trade relationships contribute positively to the search for a new more stable and sustainable global geopolitical balance towards a new phase of balanced global development D The overcoming of the crisis and restructuring of the global system seems to require as a matter of urgency a substantial innovative leap implemented at all levels in order for our world to enter into the trajectory of a new stable model of global development Moreover behind the necessity of this drastic innovative transcendence the problem of building new methodologies and mechanisms of change management arises inevitably E The current structural crisis of world capitalism seems to be manifested by a multitude of socioeconomic phenomena In this context the trade war between the two largest economies constitutes only one such episode of the global structural crisis However if the goal of sustainable development Carayannis Campbell 2019 Moore 2015 at the global level is to construct inclusive institutions Acemoglu Robinson 2012 that incorporate an increasing number The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 23 of people without undermining the prospects of future generations by consciously protecting the environment then this trade war only seems like a setback F Therefore we argue that only the power of creative destruction the implemented innovation at all levels of action economic political technological institutional and ideological and the consequent coordinated change management at all levels of space local national regional and global can pave the way for the new world economy A growing number of scholars and policymakers call this new accumulation regime as the fourth industrial revolution or new globalization In general we think that this presentation of the USChina trade war contributes to our knowledge by linking this phenomenon to the global crisis and the potential for innovation that can lead to the exit of this crisis Undoubtedly the USChina trade war is a manifestation of the crisis and restructuring of globalization From an economic perspective we can argue that trade protectionism has the power to reduce over time the total product of society and inhibit progress in general Cheong Tongzon 2018 Georgiadis Gräb 2016 In the age of the emerging fourth industrial revolution and the importance of openness of markets and decentralized systems such a wide range of protectionisms appears to inhibit the necessary innovation and change management mechanisms that it requires By linking the dynamics of the crisis and restructuring the global socioeconomic system to the forces of innovation and change management we argue that this trade war is yet another indication of a crisis that has been reproducing these days at the expense of the new that struggles to emerge In light of the above we can see the current USChina trade war as a new challenge If it leads to a trajectory of limiting the innovative potential and performance of the actors on a global scale it will be a hindrance and a factor that reproduces and perpetuates the current crisis Should this trade war give rise to a repositioning of change management mechanisms in the relationship of global socioeconomic partners it will be a factor in accelerating the exit from the current crisis as well as a structural The following text is the Accepted Manuscript form that is the version updated to include the authors revisions after peer review prior to any typesetting for the journal This is often the version accepted by the editor The definitive published version of this extract may be found at httpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770974910119896636 on the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies 24 component of a new globalization capable of providing a relatively stable new longterm equilibrium and growth framework for the world Acknowledgments I would like to express my gratitude to Dr Andreas Andrikopoulos Associate Professor at the Department of Business Administration of the University of Aegean for his useful comments during writing of this manuscript and to my Doctoral Student Dimos Chatzinikolaou for his help with the editing Declaration of Conflict of Interest The author has declared 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